Dark Horse Davis Mills

 

    

    One of the more underrated conversations floating around the league is that of the Houston Texans, and especially of Davis Mills. The third round pick out of Stanford University in the 2021 NFL draft seemed to get lost in the hype around top rookie quarterbacks last season such as Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields. Which makes sense given the measly record of only 4-13 posted by the Texans during that season. However, after getting the starting job after the former starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, got hurt, Mills went on to put up one of the better seasons of all rookie quarterbacks.  




Underrated Rookie Campaign

    When discussing some of the top rookie quarterback talents in the 2021 season, it is easy to forget about Davis Mills. The rookie out of Stanford just couldn't stand up to the hype around national champion Mac Jones or Clemson sensation Trevor Lawrence. As well, the Texans have been in a deep slump since the infamous Bill O'Brian debacle when he traded away top talents such as DeAndre Hopkins for virtually nothing. However, if you were to look at the stats, in only 13 games, Mills performed virtually near the top in comparison to other rookie quarterbacks. Davis Mills' 2,664 yards was only third to Mac Jones' 3,801 yards and Trevor Lawrence's 3,641 yards in 4 fewer games. If you took Mill's average of 206.4 yards/game and multiplied by 4 to account for the 4 fewer games, it would put him at 3,483, just a few hundred behind the top two yardage leaders. As well, Mills' 16 total touchdowns only comes second behind Jones' 22 (again in 4 fewer games). Moreso, he also comes in second in total Quarterback Rating (QBR) (min. of 10 games played) at 88.8 behind Jones' 92.5. Therefore, when looking at the numbers how can you not include Mills in the conversation of top rookie quarterbacks of the year? This underappreciation has carried over into the 2022 season and I believe he is a dark horse to outperform what people believe.


Set-Up for a Better 2022 Season

    Under new command with new head coach Lovie Smith (formerly their defensive coordinator), the Texans look to bolster a new identity as an offensive unit, giving reason to believe that Mills can perform even better than his rookie campaign. First, the offensive line gets back its two best tackles in Tytus Howard and Laremy Tunsil after being banged up last season. As well, the Texans used their first-round draft pick in the 2022 draft to select top guard, Kenyon Green, out of Texas A&M. This re-vamped o-line will serve to help protect Mills (after getting sacked 31 times last season) and improve the nearly non-existent running game. Also, the Texans drafted rookie Dameon Pierce at running back who has been performing extremely well so far in camp and in pre-season. The injury to rookie receiver John Metchie does hurt, however, they still have veteran Brandin Cooks who is coming off back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons with the Texans. With a new and improved offensive line and running game as well as his veteran receivers, Mills' is set-up to have a successful sophomore season.





Expectations for the TEAM

    Now, all this talk about Mills being a dark horse only speaks to the offense. The defense is still a work in progress with a lot of young talent and new coaches. I'd be a fool to sit here and say that the Texans are going to win 9+ games this season. That is just not realistic. They are still in rebuild mode after the Bill O'Brian era and have lots of work to do until they get back into the playoff talks. However, I do believe that the offense, especially Davis Mills, is in a position to shock the league in terms of their performance.

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